I've never been one to shy away from predicting the future. If asked, I’d say in the next 24-months, Amazon's Cloud Drive, their controversial cloud based digital music locker, announced on March 29,
Does Your Publishing Contract Reflect the Modern Face of Book Publishing?
I believe that what we are watching is Amazon rethinking the future of making money online. Kindle is a only a transitional reading device. It's a stop along the way toward a multifunction tablet, which is, itself, a stop along the way toward a cloud based service -- a service that stores book and music files remotely.
Some believe the Kindle advertising model, announced last month, is a first step toward a freemium business model. Marry the freemium model with a cloud based book service, and you have advertising supported books. You won't just being storing books that you purchased on Amazon's server, but, reading advertising supported ones. The latter bears some similarity to the way Dickens sold his novels -- serially, in installments or parts over time. The future of publishing is going to look more "tailored and personalized." Until the FTC clamps down on America's patchwork quilt of pro-advertiser privacy laws, revenue will flow from targeted behavioral ads.
As an aside, a cloud based digital book service is a grand idea for readers as they can gain access to their files from wherever they are, and read those files on multiple devices, e.g., smart phones, tablets, and their PC's.
The ambiguous digital book future is getting clearer day-by-day. It's not about ebook reading devices, it's about monetizing ebook readers. Amazon is poised and ready, as evidenced by their willingness to build a business by selling ebooks below what they paid for them. Google is ready, too. Free works for Amazon and Google. It's just bad for publishers.
The short- to mid-term changes in trade publishing are going to be dramatic. The music industry were the first movers in the digital space. Just as technology improved musician's access to customers, it has decimated the music industry.
At the recent "Rethink Music" conference in Boston, one industry leader said cloud services must get past next year. He was optimistic about Amazon Cloud Drive and Spotify. His prediction was that the world's 160 million iTunes users will move to the cloud over the next five years. Cloud services are on the cusp. It's seems like Amazon is looking to develop a successful business model based on access to content -- not ownership. Streaming to one or multiple devices, the ability to sell ancillary services, and social networking features, make cloud based publishing a very exciting prospect.
The legal issues surround cloud and subscription services are plentiful. They include antitrust concerns. For example, there's the controversial question of whether Amazon, Google and Apple ("AGA") should own the content they distribute? It is a good idea that they have a financial interest in the content they sell? If prevented from doing so, perhaps, it would usher in a golden age of independent publishing.
If Amazon uses its dominance to crush the competition -- and there's no evidence that is their plan -- it would be bad for consumers, but good for Amazon. Perhaps, someone should shake the antitrust cage, if for no other reason that to ensure Amazon, Google, Apple, get the message. What's Amazing for Amazon, good for Google, or appropriate for Apple, is not necessarily good for you and I.
